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Electoral-cycle model: Trump is in the lead

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The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points worse.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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