The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton and Trump will each win 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, because they may include large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.1 percentage points worse in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% and Trump 47.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.9 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.