Convention bump model: Clinton is in the lead

The Convention bump model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Convention bump model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Convention bump model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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