KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 59.0% of interviewees plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% plan to cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 27 and September 28. The sample size was 732 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in California. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.