The Bio-index model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 58.3% for Clinton, and 41.7% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 4.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bio-index index model.
The Bio-index model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.