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Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Big-issue model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.0%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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