Results of a new national poll carried out by FOX were released. The poll asked respondents for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
FOX poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 3 to October 6, among a random sample of 896 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.2% for Clinton and 47.8% for Trump. On September 29 Clinton obtained 52.7% in the FOX poll and Trump obtained only 47.3%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the FOX poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.4 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.