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Vox.Com model shows Trump in the lead


The Vox.Com model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Vox.Com model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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