Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead
The Trial-heat model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.3%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points lower.
The Trial-heat model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.