Trial-heat model: Clinton is in the lead

The Trial-heat model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.7% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 49.3%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.9%. In comparison to numbers in the Trial-heat model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.8 percentage points lower.

The Trial-heat model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Trial-heat model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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