Time-for-change model: Trump is in the lead

The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.1%. Compared to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

The Time-for-change model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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