In today's update, Polly predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.4% for Trump. Taking a look at previous election years, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's predictions since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.
A look at Polly's component methods
The component methods widely agree on who will be America's next president: Five forecast a victory for Clinton and one forecast that Trump will win.
Contrary to the PollyVote forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.1%.
Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 52.5% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.9% of the vote.
Trump lost 7.2 percentage point in the index models compared to the previous month, no other component has shown a shift this large.
The econometric models forecast of 49.9% for the Democrats is quite low compared to pastelections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2004, when John Kerry ran against George W. Bush. At that time, econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for John Kerry.