Primary model shows Trump in the lead

The Primary model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 2.4 percentage points lower.

The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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