WBUR/MassINC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who replied, 60.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10. A total of 506 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts has Clinton at 63.5% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.4 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.7% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.