Goucher CollegeGoucher College released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who replied, 58.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 with 514 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 5.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.