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Lockerbie model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Lockerbie model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.5 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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