The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton can currently count on 49.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.