The Leading indicators model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, because they can contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Leading indicators model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.