Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead
The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models often incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single index models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.4%. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.