Holbrook model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.5% for Clinton, and 47.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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