Fiscal model model: Trump is in the lead

The Fiscal model model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.1% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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