Electoral-cycle model: Trump is in the lead

The Electoral-cycle model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.1%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 47.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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