DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton and Trump will each collect 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.8%. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0 percentage points worse in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% and Trump 47.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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