DeSart model: Clinton tied with Trump
The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton and Trump will each collect 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.8%. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0 percentage points worse in the DeSart model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.6% and Trump 47.4% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 2.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.