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Convention bump model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Convention bump model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Convention bump model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Convention bump model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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