Results of a new poll administered by Detroit Free Press were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Michigan for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Detroit Free Press poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 3 with 600 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Michigan. Compared to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.