KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 59.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28, among a random sample of 732 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.