538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.8% for Trump. In comparison, on October 6, Clinton was predicted to gain only 52.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they may include large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. This value is 2.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the 538 (polls-plus) model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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