Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Elway poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 among 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 58.4%. Compared to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.8 percentage points worse. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, the PollyVote is 7.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is significant.