Vermont: Whopping lead for Clinton in recent Emerson poll
Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.