Vermont: Whopping lead for Clinton in recent Emerson poll

Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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