The Atlantic released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Atlantic poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% plan to cast a ballot for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 28 and October 2. The sample size was 609 participants. The error margin is +/-4.1 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.4% for Clinton and 46.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the The Atlantic poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 0.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is insignificant.