OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 69.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. Compared to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's prediction is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.