Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 3 to October 5 with 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, don't put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Boston Globe/SuffolkBoston Globe poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.