Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were published. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a battleground state, where the GOP and the Democrats have often achieved similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have the exact same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 2 to October 4 among 700 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 50.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Nevada. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.7 percentage points worse in the poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.9% and Trump 49.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada. Clinton has 0.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Nevada. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.