WTHR/Howey Politics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
According to the results, 38.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 46.9% for Clinton and 53.1% for Trump. In the most recent WTHR/Howey Politics poll on April 21 Clinton received only 45.4%, while Trump received 54.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 54.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Indiana. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 56.8% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.