KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 59.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 28 among 732 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of California polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 61.7%. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.