Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.3 percentage points higher.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.