Results of a new poll conducted by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20, among a random sample of 514 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.3 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they may include large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.4%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's forecast is 5.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's error margin.