Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit Free Press were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 3 with 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.