Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. On April 11 Clinton received only 54.6% in the Emerson poll and Trump received 45.5%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.9% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.