Combined PollyVote forecasts win for Clinton
In today's update, Polly the parrot predicts that Clinton will gain 52.7% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.3% for Trump. Taking a look at previous election years, this is the worst result for the Democrats from PollyVote's predictions since 2008 democrat candidate Barack Obama and republican candidate John McCain were in the running.
This is what Polly's component methods predict
There is broad consensus among the six available component methods: Five predict a win for Clinton while one predicts that Trump will win.
Contrary to Polly's combined forecast, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.1%.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 52.6% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest difference from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.9% of the vote.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the index models. Clinton wins 7.2 percentage points.
Compared to previous elections, the Democrats' prediction of 52.6% in combined polls is noticeably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,combined polls predicted a vote share of 46.6% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.