OH Predictive Insights released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OH Predictive Insights poll results
According to the results, former First Lady Hillary Clinton and real estate developer Donald Trump are on equal standing, each with 42.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to September 30 among 718 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona sees Clinton at 49.6% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 0.4 percentage points better in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 46.7% and Trump 53.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Clinton has 3.3 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Arizona. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.