538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump. In comparison, on October 5, Clinton was predicted to win only 51.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they often contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.9%. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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