OpinionWorks published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who replied, 54.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 among 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often incorporate large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 69.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the OpinionWorks poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's forecast is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.