Fairleigh Dickinson/SSRS published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Fairleigh Dickinson/SSRS poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted between September 28 and October 2. The sample size was 788 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. Relative to numbers in the Fairleigh Dickinson/SSRS poll Clinton's poll average is 3.1 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.0 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.