KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 28 and October 2. The sample size was 594 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.1 points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 58.2% for Clinton and 41.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of New Mexico polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 57.3%. Compared to her numbers in the KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.