KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 59.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 28, among a random sample of 732 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California sees Clinton at 61.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 60.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.