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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome


Today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 52.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 47.4% for Trump. Polly's component methods widely agree on the election outcome: Five anticipate a victory for Clinton and one anticipates that Trump will win.

In contrast to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.1%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 52.5% for Clinton. The econometric models present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 49.9% of the vote.

The Citizen forecasts forecast of 52.2% for the candidate of the Democratic party is rather low relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's lowest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 51.2% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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