Big-issue model shows Clinton in the lead

The Big-issue model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 49.0%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, one should look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Big-issue index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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