538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.2%. In comparison, on October 4 Trump was still predicted to garner 48.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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