WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
According to the results, 60.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10, among a random sample of 506 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 61.7%. This value is 4.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.0% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.