Washington: Clinton holds substantial advantage in Elway poll
By Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
The results show that 43.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.5 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 58.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Washington. Compared to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.8 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 7.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is significant.
